Freshwater has always been the driving force behind settlements and urbanization. In most instances, settlements centered around rivers and available water sources. The Industrial Revolution transformed the agrarian economy into an urban one with populations migrating toward cities. As cities became more densely populated, sewage disposal was little more than discharge to cesspools, land application and rivers. The proximity of sewage discharges to water collection sources gave rise to waterborne disease and pandemics of cholera, typhoid fever, and dysentery. So, the limited availability of freshwater and sewage disposal limited urbanization.
The result was that centralized delivery systems for drinking water and centralized collection and treatment of sewage rose in the 19th century giving rise to the large urban areas we see today. Economic successes resulted. Now we see another limitation to urbanization which has its roots in the globalization of these urban centers.
Epidemics and pandemics are nothing new. What may be knew is the speed by which pandemics impact the globe and the frequency of their occurrence. In the less than twenty the world has faced the SARS Epidemic (2002) with 744 fatalities, the H1N1 (Avian flu) Epidemic (2009) with 18,000 fatalities, the MERS Epidemic (2012) with 400 fatalities, the Ebola Epidemic (2013-2016) with over 11,300 fatalities, and now the Covid-19 Pandemic which threatens to exceed all of these. Of course, the Covid-19 Pandemic so far is overshadowed by the AIDS Pandemic that took over 30 million lives and the 1918-1920 Spanish Flu Pandemic that killed 100 million (at a time when the world’s population was only 1.79 billion, Contrast that with today’s world population of 7.8 billion – or 435 million deaths in today’s numbers).
So, the question I put out there is whether social distancing and the economic effect of a global pandemics will trigger a reversal of land use patterns toward decreasing densities? Business and insurance is dictated by risk – the probability or threat of something happening multiplied by the resulting cost or benefit if it does. Will industries and corporations weigh the risk and decide to move operations to less densely populated areas; a form of economic distancing. Water and sewer can always be developed at any locale. It is what we water lawyers and water planners do. What will industry do?
