Pandemics and Water
Freshwater has always been the driving force behind settlements and urbanization. In most instances, settlements centered around rivers and available water sources. The Industrial Revolution transformed the agrarian economy into an urban one with populations migrating toward cities. As cities became more densely populated, sewage disposal was little more than discharge to cesspools, land application and rivers. The proximity of sewage discharges to water collection sources gave rise to waterborne disease and pandemics of cholera, typhoid fever, and dysentery. So, the limited availability of freshwater and sewage disposal limited urbanization.
The result was that centralized delivery systems for drinking water and centralized collection and treatment of sewage rose in the 19th century giving rise to the large urban areas we see today. Economic successes resulted. Now we see another limitation to urbanization which has its roots in the globalization of these urban centers.
Epidemics and pandemics are nothing new. What may be knew is the speed by which pandemics impact the globe and the frequency of their occurrence. In the less than twenty the world has faced the SARS Epidemic (2002) with 744 fatalities, the H1N1 (Avian flu) Epidemic (2009) with 18,000 fatalities, the MERS Epidemic (2012) with 400 fatalities, the Ebola Epidemic (2013-2016) with over 11,300 fatalities, and now the Covid-19 Pandemic which threatens to exceed all of these. Of course, the Covid-19 Pandemic so far is overshadowed by the AIDS Pandemic that took over 30 million lives and the 1918-1920 Spanish Flu Pandemic that killed 100 million (at a time when the world’s population was only 1.79 billion, Contrast that with today’s world population of 7.8 billion – or 435 million deaths in today’s numbers).
So, the question I put out there is whether social distancing and the economic effect of a global pandemics will trigger a reversal of land use patterns toward decreasing densities? Business and insurance is dictated by risk – the probability or threat of something happening multiplied by the resulting cost or benefit if it does. Will industries and corporations weigh the risk and decide to move operations to less densely populated areas; a form of economic distancing. Water and sewer can always be developed at any locale. It is what we water lawyers and water planners do. What will industry do?
SELF-ISOLATION BECOMES MAINSTREAM
Authors are creatures of self-isolation. Like all authors, I sequester myself away from everyone and everything to write. Others (including my wife) have suggested I “come out of hiding,” “be more social,” and “get out more.”
Who knew that one day this way of life would become mainstream!
The Cure to Virus Anxiety
Simple steps to stepping away from the TV
Limit TV = limit anxiety. The times that allow us to take a step back from the everyday hustle and grind can be positive. Hunker down with a good book, audiobook, or movie. Nothing calms better than getting lost in a good book.
While I’m on a rant, do what you can to help others more impacted. Support your local businesses. Just one example is to order take-out, dine outside, or to buy a gift certificate for later. We (your local community, our country, our world) are all in this together. We may be surprised by what positive comes from all the clutter.
I find myself with more time to write. A third of the way into the first draft of the next novel…with all kinds of new ideas.
KIZMET?
How Many Times Have You Heard: “YOU CAN’T MAKE THIS STUFF UP?”
A month ago I began research into the background of one scene of my next novel. Picture a country in South America with a large Hezbollah and Iranian presence (true). Then picture a failed Venezuela (true). My characters needed to get off the continent and the easiest escape was out of Venezuela to Trinidad less than 10 miles off the coast. I was surprised to learn that this little West Indies island with a population of 1.3m contributed over 130 Islamic fighters to Syria, the largest per capita number of any country and was home to the first (failed) Islamic coup attempt in 1990. Keep tuned: Whatever I can fictionally dream up seems to have one foot in reality!
Moral Gray Areas and the Rise of Terminators
BBC recently published a piece on autonomous robotic weapons and artificial intelligence. For those who remember the Terminator movies, this discussion is a bit unsettling.
The issue of autonomous weapons is vastly different than the moral issues over drone warfare. Drone warfare is presently oversee by military personnel making decision to strike. Many argue the gray moral issues of drone warfare but it is hard to argue that drone warfare does not lessen civilian deaths in war. In WWI the ratio of civilian to combatant deaths was nearly 50%. In WWII, the ratio was 65%. Precision weapons, while not totally “precise,” are not what indiscriminate fire was in former conflicts. Novelists are always looking for the next gray area to weave into a story, this seems like a pretty interesting one!
Research, Research and More Research
There’s nothing that will jar me from a good story than an implausible premise or a faulty fact. Novelists are storytellers. The story we tell has to immerse the reader in a believable world. There may be fake news but there are no fake facts. It’s either fact or fiction - research discerns the difference.
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