Some comparisons from the Who’s Won’t Get Fooled Again (1971) and history. I’ve written before on the acts of Vladimir Putin (October 29, 2018 blog). The past ten days have reinforced the adage that history always repeats itself.
Following the March 1938 absorption of Austria, Adolf Hitler announced his intention to “re-unite” the Sudetenland, an area of Czechoslovakia that was populated by many German-speaking people. Hitler claimed that the country of Czechoslovakia and its borders never were legitimate and labeled the populous “ethnic Germans” that needed to be protected. With this justification, Hitler threatened the western democracies to accept the takeover of a nation or face war. In a separate attempt to avoid war, the western democracies appeased Hitler and, without input from the Czechs, allowed the forced takeover of the lands and people.
Eighty-four years later, Vladimir Putin, in a 55-minute rant, claimed that the country of Ukraine and its borders never were legitimate and labeled the populous of Ukraine “ethnic Russians,” that needed to be protected, announcing that the country would be re-united with Russia (these statements were a repeat of his claims in 2014 when he seized Crimea, and the world did nothing). With this justification, Putin threatened western democracies, of which Ukraine is one, to accept Ukraine’s takeover or face war. This time, there was no appeasement. The western diplomats were stronger and far more united this time. Had they not been, Putin’s next target would have undoubtedly been the Kaliningrad Oblast, a Russian enclave detached from Russia on the Baltic coast between Lithuania and Poland.
The lessons of history are to stop the bully. If you do not, you will be forced to confront a stronger bully later. Putin has grossly miscalculated. He is in a no-win situation. The Ukrainians will not accept occupation and he cannot control a country of 44 million with 180,000 troops. His economy is cratering. He will be toppled from within when the Russian people learn the truth and refuse to accept the path he has forged and pain he has caused… because history repeats itself and that is always the fate of autocrats who fail to appease the masses they control.