I recently identified water as what could be the driver for regime change in Iran. https://kevinlandpatrick.substack.com/p/a-state-of-failure-the-coming-unrest . Now I turn to Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. Like Tehran, Kabul faces the potential to literally run out of water forcing migration and suffering in a country forsaken by international relief due to the politics of its leadership.
To be sure, Kabul’s water woes have been decades in the making, but since the Taliban returned to power in August of 2021, the problems have worsened. A combination of the effects of climate change, water mismanagement, and rapid urban growth have intensified groundwater withdrawals. “Mining” groundwater is the name for when groundwater withdrawals exceed recharge. Kabul’s groundwater mining is reportedly 34,000 acre feet annually and growing. Water depths have declined 80-100’ and many wells have run dry. Those wells that continue to produce are increasingly contaminated by salts.
Why? How can a city, which sits within sight of the Hindu Kush, a mountain range with heights in excess of 20,000’ and snow covered in Afghanistan’s brutal mountain winters, be dry? The answer is a combination of factors:
1. Climate change has increased evaporation and made the dry season longer;
2. Urban growth. With population comes increased demands;
3. Mismanagement: Back to back wars (Soviet-Afghanistan War 1979-1989), US War on Terror (2001-2021), and the Taliban who war against their own people has resulted in a brain drain and wholesale disregard for water planning; and
4. Inadequate Financial Resources. Infrastructure (dams, reservoirs, delivery systems require capital. No one is rushing to the Taliban’s aid when they persecute and enslave their own people.
A combination of factors or a revealing common thread? The principle common threads between Tehran and Kabul are two: Mismanagement and climate change.
Climate change is drying the continents, increasing evaporation, and robbing soil moisture and groundwater recharge. Remember, evaporation returns water to the surface, but when 70% of the Earth’s surface is covered with saltwater oceans, 70% of the evaporative moisture from land falls on ocean, lost from the continents. A recent UN study revealed that three-fourths of the Earth’s land masses were suffering some form of drying as a result of changing climactic conditions in the last thirty years.
The second factor, of course, is something that is inexcusable: Water mismanagement. Places like Cape Town that in 2018 nearly ran out of water implemented conservation, instituted water education, and intensified proper water planning. That city is improving its water resilience. Will Kabul and Tehran? Likely doubtful. When people run out of water, are forced to migrate, and begin to suffer, they blame leaders. Like Tehran, it is a recipe for civil unrest in Kabul and regime change.