I write thrillers that weave in nature concepts like climate, the environment and water. I have spent my life dealing with one subject, water. My first attempt at a thriller exposed conflict over water between Turkey and Iraq. Nations have been close to war over water. With climate change, looming conflicts are when not if.

This week’s skirmish between two hostile nuclear powers, India and Pakistan was ostensibly over control over Kashmir, but embedded in that conflict is the resource of water. The Indus River originates in China, flows into India and then into Pakistan. It’s six primary tributaries are he subject of a transboundary treaty (the 1960 Indus Water Treaty (IWT)), that generally allocates the three Eastern tributaries (Ravis River, Beas River, and Sutlej River to India) and the three Western tributaries (Indus River, Jhelum River, and Chenab River) are split 80% to Pakistan and 20% to India.

Well, the old water saying is, “I’d rather be upstream with a shovel than downstream with a water right.” India has been making overt rumblings that it wants to renegotiate the ITW, citing climate change impacts to the watersheds and its demands. Pakistan is not eager; 80% of its agriculture and a third of its hydropower is reliant on its share of the ITW.

So, when India blamed Pakistan for targeting Hindu tourists in a deadly attack in Kashmir, it “suspended” the ITW. Pakistan denied involvement in the attack and despite the ceasefire between the parties, the ITW remains suspended with Pakistan threatening legal recourse under the treaty. India really can’t stop the flow into Pakistan, it’s that pesky thing called gravity. Without infrastructure, to divert water the water, it will continue to flow…for now. But there is little doubt that this is a conflict that will intensify as demands increase and the effects of climate change reduce the supply side of the equation.

Stay tuned, there are at least seven other simmering transboundary water conflicts. I see another novel brewing.