THE COMING WATER WAR IN AFRICA? THE DENIAL OF THE NILE

There have been countless conflicts over water. From ancient Babylonia’s damming of the Tigris (1700 BC), to Machiavelli and Leonardo da Vinci’s plan on behalf of Florence to cut off Pisa’s water supply (1503), to Arizona calling out its militia and national guard (coined the Arizona Navy) in 1935 to prevent the construction of Parker Dam on the Colorado River, the history of water wars is lengthy.  

In my June 25, 2021, blog, I wrote of the conflict on the Nile between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt (and my first novel, Threatened Waters, featured it in 2014). Well, things haven’t gotten any better…at all.

Ethiopia, with Chinese backing through China’s Gezhouba Corporation and Exim Bank, has been constructing the Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile since 2011. It has been filling for the last four years and has begun to generate hydropower. When completed and filled, it will generate 6,450 MW of electricity, Africa’s largest hydro facility. Downstream Sudan and Ethiopia aren’t happy. Egypt has rattled sabers of war stating it intends to “defend its national security.” With 90% of its population dependent on the Nile’s flow, Egypt is understandably wary.

Now that it is in place, the time for military strikes may be passed. Destruction of the dam would result in catastrophic damage downstream. China’s increased presence in Africa in search of raw materials and strategic geopolitical engagement, telegraphs that it won’t let its investment be taken by force.

So, what to do? The Nile has a history of poor management and even poorer cooperation stemming from failed and often ignored Colonial Britain agreements (1929 Nile Waters Agreement) to the bilateral Egypt/Sudan 1959 Agreement. What may alter this historical deadlock are infrastructure realities. Ethiopia’s electric grid is nowhere near able to handle the electric load from the dam. Cooperation with its neighbors, Sudan, Uganda, and Egypt is needed to develop a 21st century grid capable of monetizing and delivering the hydropower. Basin cooperation will have to occur. If this isn’t in the cards, China and Ethiopia’s five billion dollar investment may well become a white elephant.