The driest 25 years in the last 1200 years have occurred in the West since 2000. And it’s only 2026. The Rockies are the spine of the nation. Rain falling on the east side of the Rockies’ continental divide flow to the Atlantic. Rain falling on the west side flows to the Pacific.
The Southwest produces over half of the nation’s vegetables, nuts, and fruits. The crops rely on irrigation withdrawn from the major river systems fed by the natural cycle of winter snow slowly melting off from spring to fall, cresting in a peak known as the runoff period. That peak has always occurred in a narrow window between mid-May and mid-June, year after year. It’s a constant water managers, farmers, ranchers, and recreational interests have developed their planning on. Until now.
In the Southwest and Rockies, 2026 is defining a new future. Sure, there have been heavy winters and droughts, but nothing quite like this. With a dismal to non-existent snowpack and a March that was bone-dry with 80˚F temperatures in the high elevations, there will be no runoff period this year. Streamflows are at record lows and reservoirs will not fill.
Some farmers are choosing to reduce plantings, ranchers are selling off cattle, and cities are scrambling to shore up water supplies.
Water planners have always used dry years of record to develop water supply planning, 1954, 1977, 2018, 2022; they were all dry years. Now the paradigm has changed, the dry year has become the norm. What does this do? Solutions cost money: Additional storage, conjunctive water use, and acquisitions of senior water rights mean higher utility bills. On the grocery side: Less crops planted and less livestock mean higher grocery bills. It all drives up the cost of living.
I’ve written before that a rise in atmospheric heat equates to more energy in the atmosphere (heat = energy). The more energy, the higher the volatility is. Stronger storms, more powerful droughts.
Perhaps one indicator of how much of a nerd I am is I follow ocean buoys. Sexy, huh? Sea surface temperatures foretell future downrange short-term climate. NOAA maintains both surface and deep ocean monitoring buoys at different depths. The TAO/TRITON Array (Tropical Atmospheric Ocean)(Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network) was first commenced in 1985 and completed in 1994. Since then, it has been the best source of data for observing and predicting El Niño and La Niña climate phenomena.
La Niña is associated with a cooling phase while El Niño reflects a warming phase. These are natural cycles occurring every two-seven years. What is less natural is transitioning from an El Niño to a super El Niño. That is apparently what the Pacific is now registering with surface water temperatures rising 3.6˚F in a single year.
El Niño will affect the entire country. Typically, a strong El Niño means a warmer and drier Northwest, a rainier and more humid Northeast, a cooler and rainier Southeast and more precipitation in the Southwest. For Colorado it is always a crapshoot as the state seems to be a dividing line where historically the pattern swings above or below the state.
What is apparent is that the strength and volatility of climactic vents are more dramatic and occurring more frequently as the atmosphere absorbs more energy occasioned by a warming climate. That makes water planning more difficult and agriculture more difficult.
The new paradigm to adapt and plan for a changing hydrograph will make utilities and groceries cost more. So, when someone presents an argument that tacking climate change solutions is too costly, factor in the costs of not addressing the underlying events.