THE COMING WATER WAR IN AFRICA? THE DENIAL OF THE NILE

This article appears in my Substack: K.LandPatrick’s Water Lawg

There have been countless conflicts over water. From ancient Babylonia’s damming of the Tigris (1700 BC), to Machiavelli and Leonardo da Vinci’s plan on behalf of Florence to cut off Pisa’s water supply (1503), to Arizona calling out its militia and national guard (coined the Arizona Navy) in 1935 to prevent the construction of Parker Dam on the Colorado River, the history of water wars is lengthy.  

In my June 25, 2021, blog, I wrote of the conflict on the Nile between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt (and my first novel, Threatened Waters, featured it in 2014). Well, things haven’t gotten any better…at all.

Ethiopia, with Chinese backing through China’s Gezhouba Corporation and Exim Bank, has been constructing the Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile since 2011. It has been filling for the last four years and has begun to generate hydropower. When completed and filled, it will generate 6,450 MW of electricity, Africa’s largest hydro facility. Downstream Sudan and Ethiopia aren’t happy. Egypt has rattled sabers of war stating it intends to “defend its national security.” With 90% of its population dependent on the Nile’s flow, Egypt is understandably wary.

Now that it is in place, the time for military strikes may be passed. Destruction of the dam would result in catastrophic damage downstream. China’s increased presence in Africa in search of raw materials and strategic geopolitical engagement, telegraphs that it won’t let its investment be taken by force.

So, what to do? The Nile has a history of poor management and even poorer cooperation stemming from failed and often ignored Colonial Britain agreements (1929 Nile Waters Agreement) to the bilateral Egypt/Sudan 1959 Agreement. What may alter this historical deadlock are infrastructure realities. Ethiopia’s electric grid is nowhere near able to handle the electric load from the dam. Cooperation with its neighbors, Sudan, Uganda, and Egypt is needed to develop a 21st century grid capable of monetizing and delivering the hydropower. Basin cooperation will have to occur. If this isn’t in the cards, China and Ethiopia’s five billion dollar investment may well become a white elephant.

CORAL: You Need it More than You Know

This article appears in my Substack: K.LandPatrick’s Water Lawg

I’ve written before that water issues and climate change are inescapably linked. This applies not just to the effect on terrestrial habitat like rivers, groundwater, and the like, but the marine environment.

I grew up a fair amount of my youth in the South Pacific, born in July (a water sign), with over 2,000 dives (along with divemaster, rescue diver, high-altitude, etc. certifications).  The awe and beauty I’ve seen I fear will no longer be present for our children to enjoy.

Coral reefs make up 0.01% of the sea bottom. But over 25% of all sea life lives in that fraction of the ocean. And that endangered habitat is critical to billions of humans on the planted. Reefs provide the backbone of all sea life, fish stocks, and protect coastal zones. Without the reefs the marine life that billions on the planet rely on for economic life and food will be impaired, lost, eliminated.

In the last forty years, global temperatures have risen 1.2 F degrees and the result has been the loss of 50% of al coral reefs. The general acceptance is that if temperatures rise to +2 degrees, 99% of all reefs will be lost. And, at the present rate of warming, that will be in the next generation’s lifetime.

Three culprits attack the reefs: Heat, acid, and turbulence. When subjected to these influences, corals, which are animals (colonial invertebrates to be exact), become what is known as “bleached.” When stressed by temperature, acid, or storms, coral expel zooxanthellac (algae in their tissues) leaving only their white skeletons.

·         Heat: Corals live in a narrow band of temperature. Too hot, they die. Thermal stress is the largest threat to coral.

·         Acidification: The ocean is a large carbon sink. Increased carbon dioxide absorption results in lower PH (increase acid in the ocean).

·         Storms: As global and sea temperatures rise, stronger and more frequent storms occur challenging the already weakened coral structure.

It’s not all gloom and doom, with global efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions, the pattern can be slowed. And, there are a lot of bright, new ideas bubbling up (sorry for the cliché). Until massive cuts to NOAA’s budget, studies abounded to combat reef loss. NGO’s like The Coral Reef Alliance and Florida’s Coral Restoration Foundation have been bright spots in protecting reefs. Social media has played a positive role in educating care when snorkeling, diving, and boating around reef systems. And, new technology like concrete breeze blocks to artificially assist coral formation and coral nurseries for transplanting coral, hold promise.

In short, this is our generation’s problem to solve. I’ve had countless dives on the Great Barrier, and throughout the Caribbean, Red Sea, and South Pacific. It used to be uncommon, shocking to see a bleach event, now it is the norm. We created the problem, and we can fix it so that the next generation can have the wonder of the sea I have been lucky enough to experience.  

DAM(N), I HAD NO IDEA I WAS DEWATERING AMERICA

This article appears in my Substack: K.LandPatrick’s Water Lawg

I’ve railed against the wasteful and dumb use of water before. These days, the tech billionaires and the administration actively promote cryptocurrencies and other wasteful uses of water.  A single bit-coin transaction can use 6.2 million times more water than a credit card swipe. Why? Electricity, power demands.

Electric demand in the US is expected to increase by over 75% in the next 25 years. Much of that demand will come from crypto-mining and data centers. Another chunk will come from rising temperatures resulting in longer cooling seasons and higher cooling loads (climate change). So, what does that have to do with water?

We are still using technology from the mid-20th century to generate electricity. Turbines driven by steam, created by superheating water. On average 2.0 gallons of freshwater are consumed to generate one kWh of electricity. The exception, of course, is hydro-electric dams/turbines. Here’s the average breakdown:

 ·         Water Used in Coal Fired Power Plant to Generate One MWh:          35,000 gal

·         Water Used in Nuclear Power Plant to Generate One MWh:                2,200 gal 

·         Water Used in Gas Fired Power Plant to Generate One MWh:            2,800 gal

 The energy needed to mine one bitcoin has been estimated to conservatively require 155 MWh, about the amount of energy a single family residence uses over 50 days. So, if the mining of a single bitcoin consumes the same amount of water as 6-7 homes in a year, how responsible (or irresponsible) is it to promote and partake in crypto-currencies?

Cryptocurrencies produce no independent tangible benefit. They are just another currency, just another investment vehicle.  A wasteful footprint the world cannot afford. I’m an optimist. I suspect that if people knew these facts, they would choose not to delve into cryptocurrencies.

BLOWING OFF STEAM Water & Climate Change

This article appears in my Substack: K.LandPatrick’s Water Lawg

Water issues and climate change are inescapably linked. Unlike other natural resources, water can be present in all three forms: a liquid (fluid water), a solid (ice), and a gas (vapor).

Think back to your high school science class (back when science was taught). Remember British Therma Units (BTU)? Stay with me for two sentences. It may sound boring but stick with me. Boring Sentence One: A BTU is the unit of energy used to measure heat. Boring Sentence Two: Inextricably, it is tied to water as one BTU is the amount of energy needed to raise one pound of water one degree Fahrenheit. 

Yawn, what does this have to do with water and climate change, you ask?  

Heat is energy. Heat flows in one direction, from a warm object to a cooler one. So, when the oceans and land masses warm, the atmosphere warms. The result is water vapor (moisture in the atmosphere) increases. Stronger and more frequent storms. More violent weather patterns, and this can occur in two directions, more frequent and longer droughts. 

Hey, you say, what’s one degree to anyone? For every one degree Celsius rise, the atmosphere stores an additional 7% more water, heat, and energy. 

The impact to agriculture is dramatic, but also to municipal water supplies, industrial output, water pollution, and your pocketbook. Think, storm damage, insurance rates, availability of mortgages, and increased taxes to harden water and wastewater infrastructure. 

So, the next time you hear someone describe climate change as a hoax, ask whether they believe water scarcity and severe weather events are also hoaxes. Those involved with agriculture, municipal finance, insurance risk, utility planning, or just live in the state of Florida (yes, hurricanes have become more frequent and severe there in the last forty years) likely won’t use the term hoax.

WATER WARS Part 1: India & Pakistan

This article appears in my Substack: K.LandPatrick’s Water Lawg

I write thrillers that weave in nature concepts like climate, the environment and water. I have spent my life dealing with one subject, water. My first attempt at a thriller exposed conflict over water between Turkey  and Iraq. Nations have been close to war over water. With climate change, looming conflicts are when not if.

This week’s skirmish between two hostile nuclear powers, India and Pakistan was ostensibly over control over Kashmir, but embedded in that conflict is the resource of water. The Indus River originates in China, flows into India and then into Pakistan. It’s six primary tributaries are he subject of a transboundary treaty (the 1960 Indus Water Treaty (IWT)), that generally allocates the three Eastern tributaries (Ravis River, Beas River, and Sutlej River to India) and the three Western tributaries (Indus River, Jhelum River, and Chenab River) are split 80% to Pakistan and 20% to India.

Well, the old water saying is, “I’d rather be upstream with a shovel than downstream with a water right.” India has been making overt rumblings that it wants to renegotiate the ITW, citing climate change impacts to the watersheds and its demands. Pakistan is not eager; 80% of its agriculture and a third of its hydropower is reliant on its share of the ITW.

So, when India blamed Pakistan for targeting Hindu tourists in a deadly attack in Kashmir, it “suspended” the ITW. Pakistan denied involvement in the attack and despite the ceasefire between the parties, the ITW remains suspended with Pakistan threatening legal recourse under the treaty. India really can’t stop the flow into Pakistan, it’s that pesky thing called gravity. Without infrastructure, to divert water the water, it will continue to flow…for now. But there is little doubt that this is a conflict that will intensify as demands increase and the effects of climate change reduce the supply side of the equation.

Stay tuned, there are at least seven other simmering transboundary water conflicts. I see another novel brewing.

WATER VARIABILITY, OR, IT’S THE DAMN CLIMATE

This article appears in my Substack: K.LandPatrick’s Water Lawg

I write thrillers that weave in nature concepts like climate, the environment and water. I have spent my life dealing with one subject, water. As a water attorney fortunate enough to represent some of the nation’s most prominent companies, people, and water providers, I’m constantly amazed at how little water, an element that makes up 60% of our body, and defines our planet’s existence, is understood.

Climate change impacts are most dramatically apparent when it comes to water.

When I hear people (mostly politicians and pundits) decry climate change as a hoax on the basis that last winter was cold or snowy, I know they’re really faking it for a good sound bite. Weather is the short term atmospheric condition at a given time. In contrast, climate is the long-term average of that weather. What the weather might be today or last month is not a representative picture of climate.

It's equally egregious (in my opinion) to call it global warming. The impacts of climate change may make some regions colder, wetter, and others warmer, drier. While the earth is warming, it is the effect of that warming that caused climate variability or climate change.

Remember that science class you struggled through in high school? You put water in a glass beaker, lightly put a stopper in the beaker and then put the beaker over a bunsen burner’s flame? Steam formed in the beaker above the boiling water and the black rubber top popped off (usually before the beaker shattered, sending deadly shards of glass across the classroom, as it did in my experiment).

That’s the impact of climate change. Heat equals energy. Volatility. Stronger storms, more severe droughts, more extreme precipitation events. Hence, why I use the term climate variability.

Let’s look at the current drought conditions in the Colorado River basin. 

And look at the same time last year (April 16, 2024):

If you were to develop an average of the last ten or twenty years (minimum), you would have a picture of the climate by precipitation averages. Looking at the weather or water content of an area for a single season can be useful to judge actions for that season, but not the future. As Will Rogers said, “Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” In contrast, man can take actions to do something about climate.

WHO’S USING MY WATER?

This article appears in my Substack: K.LandPatrick’s Water Lawg

I always cringe when I hear those two words together: MY WATER. Why, you ask. First, a bit about my perspective. I have spent my life dealing with one subject, water. As a water attorney fortunate enough to represent some of the nation’s most prominent companies, people, and water providers, I’ve heard those two words together too many times.

It's a NIMBY term usually uttered by those that don’t understand where water comes from, how it is used, who has rights to it, and how fragile and treasured water is. There’s a saying: If you have water, you don’t understand it; if you don’t have water, you know water well. In other words, if you’re from the East, you likely don’t give water much thought, just turn on the tap. In the west, water is precious, coveted, fought over.

With that backdrop, let’s get some statistics out of the way.

First, how is water used? Nationally, municipal and domestic use accounts for about 13% of all water use, agriculture 32%, power generation 45% and 10% miscellaneous uses. In the western united states, where water is scarcer, the figures are much different. There, 72% of water used is in agriculture, 22% municipal and domestic, and the balance is a mix.

That may come as a surprise to many that believe urban sprawl and development are the evil users of water. Not really. Not only is the share of water use surprisingly low, most, upwards of 90% of that water returns to the hydrograph in the form of treated wastewater discharge to be used again. In Colorado, my home state, we say “flush, California needs the water.”

In fact, as a result of education and conservation, the nation’s municipal water utilities use approximately the same amount of water now that it did in 1970, despite the population increasing by 40% in that same. Some good news.

The next question is where does the water come from? It depends on who’s using the water and where they reside. The vast majority of water use for domestic, industrial, and municipal uses comes from surface water. For agriculture, nearly 30% comes from groundwater. In some states, this figure is dramatically higher.

Despite far too many states failing to understand the interconnection between surface and groundwater (another reason politicians shouldn’t be left to their own when it comes to science), most groundwater withdrawals tap water connected with a surface stream (tributary water). The exceptions are confined aquifers such as the Ogallala in the great plains, that stretches from South Dakota to Texas. But that is a whole other post.

So, back to my original point. MY WATER. Water knows no geographical or political boundaries. It is a resource to be used wisely and once used available to others. Like energy, water can never be consumed to extinction. All the water that once was at the time of the dinosaurs remains today. Its wise use and recognition as a precious resource will ensure that future generations have an ample supply. How that is done is for the next couple of posts. Stay hydrated and stay tuned.

From Water to Air: Will the Next Two Years Override the Last 50?

This article appears in my Substack: K.LandPatrick’s Water Lawg

Positives & Negatives in the Air We Breathe

The Positive: In a handful of years from 1969 to 1972, Congress overwhelming show of bipartisan support passed the National Environmental Policy Act (1969), the Clean Air Act (1970), and the Clean Water Act (Federal Water Pollution Control Act of 1972). While there were prior enactments to study and investigate pollution and effects on the environment, this series of legislation implemented means, methods, and controls.

Since then, water quality and air quality has dramatically improved, saved, and prolonged the lives of Americans and those beyond our borders. For example, in just the past 40 years sulfur dioxide (SO2), that contributes to acid rain, lung disease, and a host of other illnesses, have been reduced by 94%.

The Negative and Positive: The past few weeks have seen four executive orders signed to bring back and boost coal production and coal fired power generation. Coal now supplies around 16% of all electrical generation, natural gas is around 43%, nuclear is around 19%, and the balance of around 22% are clean renewables (wind, hydro, solar, biomass --- in that order).

Some fear (or actually believe) these executive orders mean a reset. They don’t. An executive order lacks the power or authority to roll back regulations and acts of congress. Rulemaking, a laborious and time consuming process is required…years. And Congress is, well, a fairly ineffective stalemate these days. But most of all, businesses and utilities are the ones that drive and determine what power generation sources will be selected, not government. And these two hate uncertainties, do not gamble on short term politics, and focus on the bottom line. The odds of new coal fired power plants being approved during this administration are as about as good as me getting a Pulitzer.

I doubt anyone needs to ask why the title referenced two years.

Let's Talk ALBEDO (Not to be Confused with Libido)

This article appears in my Substack: K.LandPatrick’s Water Lawg

Like many, I find the news feed (pretty much the whole spectrum) far too biased, sensationalist, dumbed down, and depressing. There’s a positive story for every negative one, it just never makes the headline. With the advent of false narratives and misinformation, important subjects are being overlooked or obscured. My focus revolves around writing thriller with elements of the environment and natural resources, particularly water, the later I have spent my whole life working with. Water is fraught with myths, mysteries, and politics, most of which can make wonderful literature, particularly thrillers. I invite you to read, share, and comment (respectfully please).

Today’s Post: Positives & Negatives deals with Albedo. The term is defined by the Cambridge Dictionary as: The amount of light reflected from a surface. Or, why it makes more sense to rent a white car when traveling to Arizona than a black one during the summer.

POSITIVE:

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC or North Atlantic Current) has in recent years been the subject of increasing concern. The current acts as a conveyor belt bringing warm water from the equatorial region to the North Atlantic. Its role in distributing heat, nutrients, and salt that are essential to marine life and regulating northern hemisphere temperatures. With increased freshwater flows entering the ocean from ice melt, salinity differentials have threatened the current, slowing it down. If it were to collapse, Western Europe and North America would see catastrophic impacts including far colder and longer winters in Europe disrupting agriculture and food security and increased sea level rise in North America, coastal damage, and extreme precipitation swings from rainfall events to drought.

Experts of predicted the AMOC is at a tipping point but a new study, conducted by the University of Bern, Switzerland, has concluded that the current could be far more resilient than originally thought. Scientists studied the transition from the last ice age and found that the current weakened less acutely than previously assumed. While not an “all-clear” moment, it does give some optimism that nature is more resilient to man than originally feared.

NEGATIVE:

Back to Albedo and that hot black rental car. With a loss of sea ice in the Arctic region, darker ocean surfaces absorb more solar radiation resulting in the compounding of effects and an amplified warming cycle. The result is a polar amplification of warming of the Arctic.

To some, this means new open ice-free trade routes, but to the more serious, it is a clear and present danger. Permafrost covers about a quarter of the land mass in the Northern hemisphere and entraps about half of all carbon stored in our planet’s soil. It has long served as the carbon sink of the planet. But, once thawed, carbon dioxide and methane are released intensifying and accelerating the warming of our planet.

The Arctic is warming at a rate of two to three times the rate of the Earth as a whole. If all  permafrost were to thaw, it would release four times the amount of carbon and greenhouse gases emitted by humans since the Industrial Revolution. Game Over. The solution, tackle climate change. Circular, right? Banning the words in books, pretending it’s a hoax, or simply throwing up your arms isn’t going to make the issue go away. Science and nature don’t bend to  politics. They are immutable and unforgiving.

By the way, Albedo is the name of a new thriller novel I just completed and sent to my agent. What could possibly go wrong?

Smart & Stupid Water Use

Today’s Post: Positives & Negatives

PRO

SDI. No this is not Reagan’s Space Defense Initiative, it’s the latest in water conservation in agriculture. Subsurface Drip Irrigation allows less water to be applied to a row crop, without evaporative losses. A field is leveled, and drip lines are installed at a depth of 6-24” below grade every other row. Water can be applied to accommodate natural precipitation and crop demands. The result is dramatic savings in water application rates and crop yields.

While initially a bit more expensive than irrigation guns, the technology is on a financial par with center pivot and fixed sprinkler irrigation system but without evaporative losses and with reduced labor costs. Evaporative losses from surface sprinkler irrigation can exceed 30% and with flood irrigation, the rate of deep percolation and evaporation can reach 50%. SDI slashes that to nearly zero.

CON

SWU. No that’s not a real term, it’s what I made up for “stupid water use.” While techies like Elon and not so techies like our President are clamoring over the benefits of AI and Bitcoin, here’s a not so fun-fact: A single Bitcoin transaction can use a swimming pool’s worth of water. That’s 6.2 million times more water used than a credit card swipe.

Bitcoin mining requires vast quantities of energy and with that I mean super-computers that must be cooled with water and coal-fired power plants that, again, must use vast quantities of water (for those who think nuclear energy is clean energy, think again, besides the waste, the cooling water requirements for nuclear plants is staggering). The average data center uses 300,000 gallons a day, enough to supply 100,000 homes. ChatGP and Google AI’s water footprint have increased dramatically as their usage increases.

Education is always the key as most people do not consider the environmental and resource impact of siting data centers (over a hundred data centers are locate in and around Phoenix and over two dozen in the Las Vegas area). More never associate energy and water consumption with Bitcoin. So how do you feel about the lure of Bitcoin?